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Tesla delivered the first batch of Model 3 made in Shanghai. Why is Shanghai's super factory so important?

2020-01-09 17:04 Source: Surging News · Surging Number · Client

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On January 7th, Tesla officially delivered the first batch of domestic model 3 in Shanghai, the price dropped from 353,800 yuan to 290,000 in one breath.
From start to delivery, it took only one year. Musk came to Shanghai four times a year and a half, this time dancing excitedly on the stage. Why does Musk attach so much importance to the Chinese market? What does Tesla localization mean in the end, can Shanghai help Tesla?
We have analyzed Tesla's global market, Tesla's production capacity and price, and China's new energy vehicle market. At this time, we published it again to see how Tesla's prospects in China.
Tesla has made a big move recently.
On November 22, 2019, Tesla released the first electric pickup, the Cybertruck, with a futuristic appearance and a new screen in the circle of friends.
Almost no one noticed. On the same day, the domestic version of the Tesla Model 3 with the Chinese character "Tesla" logo on the back of the car quietly entered China's directly-operated stores. Ten days ago, Tesla just obtained a mass production license from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Ten months ago, construction of Tesla's Shanghai "Gigafactory 3" began.
Although the outside world is attracted by Cybertruck's design, in fact, as Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy said, Cybertruck's design is too aggressive and not competitive. For Tesla, which has a continuous loss and stagnant market value, Musk is really betting on a new factory in Shanghai. The most intuitive evidence is that Tesla's latest third quarter financial report was only 28 pages in total, and 9 pages of live photos of the Shanghai factory were released in one breath.
Musk once said, "The Chinese factory will not only triple Tesla's total output, but also become a model for Tesla's future growth."
Why is the Shanghai factory so important?
U.S. and China sales
Ice and Fire
There is no doubt that Tesla is increasingly relying on the Chinese market to survive: due to halving tax subsidies in the United States from July, Tesla's operating income in the United States in the third quarter fell 39% year-on-year, but China grew 64% year-on-year.
In the first three quarters of 2019, the Chinese market accounted for 12.43%. It is Tesla's largest overseas market, the second largest market in the world (after the United States), and the fastest growing market in the world.
In fact, no new energy vehicle brand can ignore China's position in the electric vehicle market:
According to the latest data from EV-Volumes, total global electric vehicle sales in the first half of 2019 were approximately 1.134 million units, of which 645,000 were in China, accounting for 57% of the global market. Not only the sales volume is large, the growth rate is also very amazing, an increase of 66% over 2018, and an increase of nearly 100 million units compared with the same period in 2017. China's new energy vehicle sales have ranked first in the global market share for four consecutive years.
However, in the past few years, Tesla has not been smooth sailing in the Chinese market. Affected by the general environment, tariff increases and exchange rate changes have caused its price to fluctuate in China, which has been adjusted seven times in two years. Directly caused 2018's revenue in China to decline by about 13%.
On April 16, 2018, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan for the Automotive Industry" to relax investment restrictions on foreign-funded auto manufacturers operating production cooperation companies in China. Tesla seized the opportunity and became China's first wholly foreign-owned automobile company to build a factory. Local production can first prevent Tesla from being affected by the chain effects of tariff changes on imported cars, thereby obtaining a price advantage.
For Tesla, the benefits of the Shanghai plant are not just tax revenue.
The construction cost of the Shanghai Super Factory is 65% lower than that of the California Super Factory. The production cost of the entire vehicle has also been reduced. Tesla has selected many domestic suppliers: for example, Joyson Electronics for human-car interaction, Sanhua Intelligent Control for air-conditioning components, and suppliers of lithium battery packs including Tianqi Lithium , Ganfeng Lithium, Yiwei Lithium Energy, etc. According to informed sources quoted by Bloomberg News, Tesla has even started planning to replace imported Panasonic with domestic Ningde era batteries, and battery costs will be further reduced.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas estimates that the labor cost of the Shanghai plant is only about one-tenth that of the California plant. In addition to other cost reductions, Tesla's car sales margin in China can reach about 30%. Porsche's profit margins are comparable. You know, Tesla's gross profit margin fell to about 20% in the first quarter / second quarter of this year, which affected the profit of the first two quarters of this year. The gross margin of the third quarter rose to 22.8%, which helped Tesla It achieved profitability in the third quarter with a net profit of $ 143 million. However, Tesla still lost 967 million in the first three quarters this year.
In addition, the Shanghai plant will also ease Tesla's Achilles heel—capacity issues.
The Shanghai Super Factory is planned to be used for Model 3 and Model Y with the largest demand, the largest output and the greatest pressure on capacity. Musk has stated that he expects the Shanghai plant to produce 3,000 vehicles per week and the planned production capacity in the future to reach 500,000 vehicles per year. In the first three quarters of 2019, Tesla delivered a total of 255,200 vehicles, with a quarter of the time remaining, and 104,800 vehicles were left by the annual delivery target set by Musk. Whether the Shanghai plant can help is very important for Tesla, which has a tight cash flow.
Uncertainty in the Chinese market
There are also many uncertainties in the Chinese market.
The first is that the growth of China's new energy vehicles has slowed down. In January 2019, China's new energy vehicle market continued to grow rapidly at a rate of 138%, but then slowed down rapidly until it fell 45.6% year-on-year in October. So far, four consecutive growth rates have been negative.
Behind the decline for four consecutive months is a subsidy policy for a full decline. Starting from June 26, the new policy of new energy subsidies in 2019 was formally implemented. According to comprehensive estimates, the decline rate has exceeded 50%.
China's sales of new energy vehicles from 8,159 units in 2010 have soared to 1.256 million units in 2018, and sales trends are strongly related to policies. In June this year, the sales of new energy vehicles reached a full-year peak before the subsidy subsided. Then from July to October, the sales continued to decline year-on-year for the fourth consecutive month. There may be negative growth.
The same is true globally, and new energy vehicles are extremely dependent on policy. In 2017, Hong Kong's tax-free policy for electric vehicles was cancelled. Tesla's sales in Hong Kong plummeted from 1,200 vehicles a month to an average of 4 vehicles per month. In 2016, Denmark resumed taxation on imported new energy vehicles. It fell to an average of less than 100 vehicles per month. In the United States, third-quarter revenue fell 39% as the subsidy was halved due to the preferential quota of 200,000 vehicles.
Tesla
Inadequate price advantage
Tesla faces not only the overall environment of slowing demand for new energy vehicles in the Chinese market, but also fierce competition from similar vehicles. Although Model 3 ranked first in global electric vehicle sales in January-September 2019, in China, Model 3 sales only ranked fourth, with a market share of only 5.1%.
At a conference call on July 24, Musk predicted that after localization, demand for Model 3 in Greater China will reach 5,000 vehicles per week, which is 240,000 vehicles a year. According to statistics from the China Federation of Vehicle Manufacturers, in the first nine months of 2019, the cumulative sales of Model 3 in China was only 26,800, even less than 240,000.
On November 22, after the domestic Model 3 officially arrived in the store, the market response was not as enthusiastic as expected, the reason is probably the price-the current domestic model 3 standard battery life upgrade version starts at 355,800 yuan, only 8100 worse than the imported version yuan. Musk has announced that Tesla will be sold for about one-third lower than imported cars.
At the current price, the domestic Model 3 is at least 100,000 yuan more expensive than other domestic brands of electric cars. The best-selling cars in China are cheap domestic cars. BAIC, SAIC, and BYD, which rely on the Chinese market alone, occupy the second to fourth place in the global electric vehicle sales brand, and even Chery, Great Wall Motor, and Jianghuai Automobile have squeezed into the top 20.
Even for consumers who are not so price sensitive, in the 350,000 yuan sedan market, Tesla faces competitors such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi and other entry-level fuel cars.
From January to April 2019, Model 3 was sold in China with 18, 215, 7515, and 2324 vehicles, while competing Mercedes-Benz C-Class, BMW 3 Series, and Audi A4L were stable at the monthly sales level of 13,000.
However, China's new energy vehicles still have room for growth. As of June 2019, China has about 3.44 million new energy vehicles, while the number of traditional fuel vehicles has reached 250 million, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is less than 1.4%. According to the new energy vehicle development plan, by 2020, the cumulative production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will exceed 5 million.
It seems that Tesla has a long way to go in China.
Original title: "Tesla's first batch of Model 3 made in Shanghai was delivered. Why are Shanghai's super factories so important? 》
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Keywords >> Tesla, Model3, Shanghai Factory
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