Data Interpretation Blind Box Trend: What is the charm of selling 2 million small boxes on Double Eleven?
2020-01-09 17:00 Source: Surging News · Surging Ship · Client
Blind boxes are a trendy toy that has appeared in recent years-merchants will put different dolls into the same box for sale. Players can only open the doll to see the doll figure inside.
Bubble Matt is a representative company in the trend of blind boxes. It was established in 2010 and launched its first blind box in 2016. Today, Bubble Matt holds the hottest IPs in blind box circles, such as Molly, Biqi, Pan Shenluoli, etc. On the day of Double Eleven in 2019, more than 2 million blind boxes were sold on Tmall, with sales of 82.12 million yuan, becoming the champion of the Double Eleven toy sales category.
Undoubtedly, 2019 is the year of the blind box explosion, but it is also controversial. Who is buying blind boxes? Why did they buy it? How did the blind box market get hot? ... data might give you the answer.
2019, the first year of popular blind boxes
The number of Weibo posts is calculated based on the number of Weibo posts in the topic # blind 盒 #; the Baidu search index is calculated based on the search volume of netizens on Baidu; the Baidu media index is distributed and recommended by Baidu according to Baidu Smart Content data is based on statistics.In December 2018, Baidu Index officially included blind boxes in its entries. Prior to September 2019, the number of Weibo posts, Baidu search index and Baidu media index all remained stable, and the story of the blind box had not yet "out of the circle".
On September 15, 2019, an article in the "China Securities Journal" entitled "Up to 39 times more profitable than the" fried shoes "is coming" Fried Blind Box "is coming" in one fell swoop. 40x # brought Weibo hot search, which reached the 14th place when it was the hottest, with 9,430 discussions and 160 million reads.
Blind boxes have since entered the public eye and become a hot topic of discussion among media and netizens.
Blind box premium up to 76 times
We analyzed the bubble box sales representative company Bubble Mart as the object of analysis, and found that not only its online sales are in full swing, but its offline store layout is also increasing. As of November 25, 2019, Bubble Mart has opened 677 stores in 23 provinces and 49 cities across the country. From the overall layout point of view, the eastern region is the most preferred location for bubble matt. Bubble Mart's first store was located in Beijing. Beijing now has 137 stores, ranking first in the country.
In order to produce sought-after blind boxes, Bubble Matter chooses to cooperate with specific designers every year to launch a new series of blind boxes. By combing the product information of Bubble Mart's series of blind boxes, we found that since the release of Bubble Mart's first trendy toy in 2016, the top three blind box images released in the series are "Molly Jasmine", "Pucky Beech" and "Satry Rory Pan God".
Jasmine is a cute girl with big lake blue eyes and golden curly hair; Biqi is derived from the pokemon in Shakespeare's "A Midsummer Night's Dream"; Pan Shen is based on half of Greek mythology with "eyes of starlight" Image of human half goat god. Because blind box extraction is random and often released in sets, purchasing from official stores alone can no longer satisfy the collection desires of blind box players. Therefore, the second-hand trading market represented by idle fish, QQ group, and funny is rising rapidly.
Through interviews with several blind box players, we learned about several popular hidden box blind boxes, which range from 15 to 76 times premium on idle fish. At the same time, the highest and lowest prices of the same hidden blind box in the second-hand market are still very different. It can be seen that the seller's pricing standards have not yet been formed, and the second-hand market for blind boxes has not been standardized.
Who is buying blind boxes?
With the rise of the blind box economy, some people have asked, who is buying blind boxes? According to Gu Yu data, blind box players are mostly female white-collar workers or students who are 18-35 years old and earn 8000-20000 yuan a month. Weibo is an important social platform for players to "blind the box". By retrieving 8109 pieces of data on Weibo # blind 盒 # topics as of November 25, 2019, we found that during the day, people talk about blindness at 20:00 and 21:00. Box of "prime time".
Judging from user portraits, this time period is more in line with the leisure time of white-collar workers and students: After a day of work and study, white-collar workers and students share their blind boxes on Weibo to express their satisfaction or regret.
So how do these players choose blind boxes?
We crawled the top 20 blind box products sold on Taobao, and divided the products into two types: trendy blind boxes and children's blind boxes. Among them, trendy blind boxes are mainly for young consumer groups, and children's blind boxes are children's toys. According to the Taobao commentary frequency of these products, we find that trendy blind box buyers value the cute attribute of the blind box image. When they pick the favorite blind box, they will express "happy" and "like" emotions, hoping to draw to hide Blind box. Buyers of children's blind boxes are more concerned about whether the child likes them and also the quality of the blind boxes they purchase.
Players, the media, the crowds ... How do they talk about blind boxes?
We find that different groups have different attitudes towards blind boxes. By analyzing the news reports and comments with "blind boxes" in 84 titles of Sohu.com, we found that from the title, many articles used "fried shoes" to compare "fried blind boxes" and "gamblers". Comparing blind box players, using "gambling stones" and "Pandora" to describe blind boxes, the description of the blind box market is no shortage of words such as "crazy", "explosive" and "fire", rendering relatively negative emotions. But after sentiment analysis, we found that only one article had a negative score higher than a positive score. It can be seen that although most reports have adopted powerful headlines, they have not made a completely critical attitude towards blind boxes.
I know it is a big platform for discussing blind boxes. At present, there are 55 related questions. We have selected viewpoint-type quizzes with more than 10,000 page views to analyze the opinions of different groups on blind boxes. Of the 292 answers, most of the participants participated in the discussion as passers-by, and a small number of blind box players and blind box makers expressed their personal opinions based on their own experiences.
By manually sorting and sorting, we divided Zhihu's opinions into 7 categories, and most of them showed negative attitudes.
In view of the identity of the respondent, although passersby expressed a variety of perspectives on blind boxes, most of them showed a critical or even ridiculous attitude; and blind box players, from their own point of view, felt wronged by passers-by: It is beyond reproach to think that you are not the "leek" who is paying IQ tax, nor is it "going into chaos". Extracting and collecting blind boxes is a way to bring happiness and satisfaction to yourself.
In addition to emotions and attitudes, the specific content of media and public discussions also differs. Through word frequency analysis, we find that the media presents the "blind box" mainly from the perspectives of consumers, markets, and sellers. Many media have adopted the idea of interpreting blind box culture from an economic perspective. Bubble Matt's CEO Wang Ning appeared 43 times in 84 reports, presenting his point of view as a seller.
In addition, the eight media headed by China Securities News have titled the event of “Bubble Mart's hidden box blind original price of 59 yuan, free fish sold for 2,350 yuan”, and passed the benchmark “fried shoes” And "gambling", regard the blind box economy as a market with high risks and high profits, and try to beat the hot blind box market one or two.
The high-frequency words on the topic of Weibo # blind 盒 # have no negative emotions at all, and most of them express their love for specific blind box or blind box behavior.
Throughout this period of media reports, almost all quoted the data of "Blind Box Economy on Free Fish" released by Free Fish, and "premium" and "fry" have become the keywords for the public to understand blind boxes.
From October to November, related searches on Weibo, such as “Fairy Blind Box Debut”, “Disney Princess Blind Box” and various blind box promotions, have improved the blind box image to a certain extent.
However, from the Baidu search index, the public's impression of blind boxes is still relatively negative: the titles of relevant focus articles still contain words such as "continuing controversy" and "beware of ultra-high prices".
From lucky bags to marketing darlings, blind boxes have evolved like this An examination of the historical development of blind boxes shows that this type of marketing has already appeared in Japan in the late Meiji period. At that time, Japanese department stores would sell lucky bags during the New Year. The marketing ideas of Fukubukuro continued to the "capsule machine" in the Japanese model market in the 1980s and the "collection card" that was popular in China in the 1990s.
In recent years, the concept of "blind box", which is truly an adult trend toy, has stabilized. In 2016, Bubble's first trendy toy, the Molly Constellation series, was launched, and blind boxes have become more popular since then.
Nowadays, the "blind box" has surpassed the ordinary trendy toy concept and extended to major industries. The marketing method of "blind box +" has become commonplace. For example, the domestic stationery giant Chenguang and childhood memories of Wangzi Milk launched their own blind box products. The patriotic theme film "The Climber", which presented the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, also collaborated with the Teddy Collection to create a blind box surrounding the movie character. In the offline market, this series of blind boxes also cooperates with the fashionable small hot pot brand Xiabu Xiabu to carry out joint sales in catering stores.
More interestingly, the "blind box" thinking has also been incorporated into this year's Expo. As one of the gifts for the volunteers of the Expo, this special "blind box" with four colors of red, yellow, blue and green became a highlight. The blind box contains practical small items such as snacks, sunscreen, umbrella, hand sanitizer, and taxi tickets, as well as cash red envelopes hidden, waiting for the appearance of "koi volunteers".
(Click here for the cloud pumping blind box, I heard that all are hidden models! Can you get the most valuable model?)
Author: ZHANG Shu Yi Wen Ho Van Rui Ning Lu Yue
Columns of "Data Analysis and Information Visualization" (Undergraduate) and "Data Journalism and Visualization" (Master's Degree) of Fudan University School of Journalism
Instructors: Zhou Yihua, Xu Di, Cui Di
This article is the first manuscript for the "Customer · Youshu" column. Reproduction is prohibited without authorization.