Review 丨 Iran completes missile attack revenge in 30 minutes, experts: war risk is decreasing
Surging news reporter Xie Ruiqiang Hu Zhenqing
2020-01-08 20:03 Source: Surging News
How did the attack go? How much damage has been done to the US military and Iraq? What was the attitude of the parties after the attack? Will the clouds of war over the Middle East turn into thunder?
Surging News (synergynusa.com) combed through the entire process since the 8th attack and interviewed experts to interpret the next development of the situation.
Missile revenge shows strength, but restraint
The statement issued by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard after the 8th attack did not disclose what types of missiles were used and the number of missiles launched.
However, according to Iran's Tasnim news agency, Islamic Revolutionary Guard forces carried out at least 35 attacks on Al Ain Al-Assad air base in Iraq. The US Department of Defense released news that Iran fired 10 missiles at Ain Assad Air Force Base, while the Erbil military base was attacked by 6 missiles.
The Iraqi military later released more details on the missile attack. The Iraqi military claims that the country was attacked by 22 missiles between 1.45 am and 2.15 am on the same day. Seventeen missiles landed at Ain Assad base, two of which did not explode; the other five landed at Erbil.
Qatar Al Jazeera reports that the Iranian attack on Iraq ’s military base in Iraq used the “Conqueror” -313 (Fateh-313) and “Rebellion” -1 (Qiam-1) ballistic missiles.
The Conqueror-313 is an improved version of the Conqueror-110 missile. Its range has been increased from 200 km to 500 km, and the warhead weighs about 500 kg. The "Qiam-1" is an improved version of the "Meteor" -2 missile, which uses a new guidance system and a head-body separation design, which enhances penetration and hit accuracy.
This is not the first actual combat of the Conqueror-313 missile. In June 2017, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards carried out missile strikes on Syrian terrorist bases. Iran fired a total of six missiles. The missile was launched from western Iran and targeted at terrorist bases in the Dezul area in eastern Syria. The actual combat demonstrated to the outside world the Iranian missile power.
"The" Conqueror "series of ballistic missiles use solid engines and have a fast response speed. The inductive guidance + terminal guidance method is used in the guidance method, and the accuracy of hitting is higher than that of ordinary missiles. It has become a precision strike weapon that is highly regarded by Iran. Missile expert Li Wensheng said.
"Iran has considered these two missiles. The first is the" Conqueror "-313 and the" Uprising "-1 ballistic missiles that meet the needs and cover two planned US military bases," Li Wensheng said. Both missiles use precision guidance technology and have high hit accuracy, and will not attack non-US military bases, reducing incidental damage. "
Al Ain Al-Assad Air Force Base is one of the largest air bases in the United States in Iraq, deploying a variety of advanced American fighter aircraft. The base has deployed U.S. MQ-9 "Reaper" and other drones, which are the main "killers" that assassinated Major General Kassim Suleimani, commander of the "Islamic Brigade" of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards of Iran . The Erbil military base is located in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq and houses US and coalition personnel.
"In addition, Iran's use of missile models, number of missiles, and target choices shows that Iran's missile retaliation is restrained, but it also shows Iran's missile deterrence." Li Wensheng said.
According to a January 3 issue of the US Newsweek website, Iran has the largest and most advanced missile arsenal in the Middle East and the largest standing army in command of the Middle East. It has already acquired the status of a military power. Earlier, the US Department of Defense believed that Iran had more than 2,000 ballistic and cruise missiles.
Regarding the effects of the attack, US and Iranian officials have not released exact information. CNN quoted US officials as saying there were no reports of U.S. military casualties in the attack. The CNN report also said that Iraqi security forces claimed that Iraqi people were killed in the attack.
According to Iran's Fars News Agency, a person familiar with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard intelligence agency said that according to accurate reports from intelligence agency sources, so far at least 80 U.S. military personnel have been killed and 200 at Assad bases. People were injured. The wounded were taken out of the base by helicopter. The person familiar with the matter added that 20 important targets inside the base were hit by 15 missiles and a large number of drones and helicopters were destroyed. However, no other reliable source can confirm this statement of Iran.
Russian satellite news agency quoted Lebanon's "Al Plaza" television station (Al Mayadeen) as reporting that a U.S. Air Force aircraft was destroyed by Iranian missiles on the runway of Assad Air Force Base in Iraq. . "
The Iranian military said after the attack that no Iraqi had died in Iran's missile attack on a U.S. military base in Iraq.
All parties have stated their positions, and the risk of escalating tensions between the United States and Iran is low.
It is worth noting that Iran only launched an attack on the U.S. military base in Iraq this time, not on Israel. According to Iran ’s Tasnim News Agency on the 5th, Rezai, former commander-in-chief of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards, has emphasized that Iran ’s retaliatory targets include the Israeli cities of Tel Aviv, Haifa, and other Israeli military installations because Israel is suspected of engaging with Suleiman Intelligence related to Nepal's whereabouts was leaked to the United States.
"The assassination of Suleimani has a huge psychological impact on the whole country of Iran. Moreover, Shiites have a special religious sentiment towards martyrdom and revenge. Once this incident happened, the revenge of the Iranian people increased." Shanghai Foreign Studies University Niu Song, a researcher at the Middle East Institute, told Peng Mei News, "Under this situation, if the Iranian government does not take retaliation, on the one hand, Iran will worry that the United States will treat Iran as a" soft persimmon, "and then take more aggressive actions; On the other hand, without retaliation, the Iranian government is ignoring mainstream opinion and swallowing its teeth.
Li Weijian, the vice president of the Chinese Middle East Society and a researcher at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, analyzed that Sumeni was assassinated because Khamenei had clearly retaliated and stepped on at Suleimani's funeral. Tones, Iran must find a vent, "retaliation is inevitable."
After the attack, Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif issued a statement on his Twitter saying that the attack was a proportionate self-defense measure taken by Iran under Article 51 of the UN Charter. "Iran's goal is a U.S. military base that has launched a cowardly attack on our citizens and senior officials." Zarif wrote, "Iran does not seek escalation or war, but will also protect itself from aggression."
In this regard, Niu Song analysis said that at present, taking moderate and restrained retaliation is Iran's best choice. "According to Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif, the target of the Iranian attack is only on the United States." Niu Song told Peng Mei News, "The Iranian side not only saved its face domestically or internationally by attacking the US military base in Iraq, but also Trump's risky behavior has warned. "
"For Iran, improper retaliation and out of control situations will lead to larger conflicts, which is unbearable for Iran and not what Iran wants to see." Li Weijian pointed out, "So this morning The strike should be a carefully designed decision. At present, the United States says that there have been no casualties. I don't think this is a coincidence. It should be carefully designed. Iran does not want to make things big. "
In fact, the two sides have largely probed each other's bottom line through mutual "space attacks", "Trump's drone assassination operation has led to Iranian missile retaliation attacks, which largely dissipated The criticism of Democrats and the military has enabled the United States to achieve the purpose of continuing to create hot spots on the Iranian issue. "Niu Song said.
Niu Song believes that if Iran follows Zarif's "revenge action", then the United States is more likely to exercise restraint.
Li Weijian also held the same view. "Neither the United States nor Iran wants the situation to continue to expand beyond its control. If the United States does not want to expand the situation, then it will use the Iranian" steps "to take advantage of the situation. This is in the interests of both sides, but the" saliva "between the United States and Iran The war is unavoidable. "
According to the BBC report on the 8th, Biden, former U.S. vice president and 2020 presidential candidate, emphasized that while participating in the campaign, US President Trump said he wanted to end the endless war in the Middle East, but now he It has brought the United States into another dangerous war.
"With the end of Suleimani's funeral and the completion of the US-Iran 'challenge-response' type of air strike, the risk of a war between the US and Iran is actually decreasing." Niu Song analyzed, "because Iran is not only in In the encirclement of the US military base in the Middle East, and Iran's technical capabilities and geo-reality cannot pose a threat to the United States, it is more concerned about its own homeland security issues. In the current US-Iran game, Iran is actually in Defensively, therefore, the trend of US-Iran relations depends more on the attitude of the US government. "
Li Weijian believes that if there is a current third-party force to take actual action to urge the US and Iran to resume dialogue and shift their focus from the assassination of Suleimani to Iran ’s Iranian nuclear issue, the tension between the US and Iran is even It cannot be alleviated immediately, or it can be eased slightly, which can help control the situation.
French President Macron spoke to Iranian President Rouhani on the 7th and also called on Iran to exercise restraint and refrain from taking any measures that would worsen the situation. Macron also called on Iran to resume full implementation of the Iran nuclear agreement.
(Intern Zhang Zihan also contributed to this article)